Finally, Table 13 outlines an example payoff structure that results in a Stag Hunt. It is not clear whether the errors were deliberate or accidental. [38] Michael D. Intriligator & Dagobert L. Brito, Formal Models of Arms Races, Journal of Peace Science 2, 1(1976): 7788. Intuition and Deliberation in the Stag Hunt Game - Nature This subsection looks at the four predominant models that describe the situation two international actors might find themselves in when considering cooperation in developing AI, where research and development is costly and its outcome is uncertain. We see this in the media as prominent news sources with greater frequency highlight new developments and social impacts of AI with some experts heralding it as the new electricity.[10] In the business realm, investments in AI companies are soaring. [2] Tom Simonite, Artificial Intelligence Fuels New Global Arms Race, Wired., September 8, 2017, https://www.wired.com/story/for-superpowers-artificial-intelligence-fuels-new-global-arms-race/. Based on the values that each actor assigns to their payoff variables, we can expect different coordination models (Prisoners Dilemma, Chicken, Deadlock, or Stag Hunt) to arise. On the other hand, real life examples of poorly designed compensation structures that create organizational inefficiencies and hinder success are not uncommon. Those in favor of withdrawal are skeptical that a few thousand U.S. troops can make a decisive difference when 100,000 U.S. soldiers proved incapable of curbing the insurgency. You note that the temptation to cheat creates tension between the two trading nations, but you could phrase this much more strongly: theoretically, both players SHOULD cheat. So it seems that, while we still are motivated by own self-interest, the addition of social dynamics to the two-person Stag Hunt game leads to a tendency of most people agreeing to hunt the stag. 8,H7kcn1qepa0y|@. endobj In addition to boasting the worlds largest economies, China and the U.S. also lead the world in A.I. [10] AI expert Andrew Ng says AI is the new electricity | Disrupt SF 2017, TechCrunch Disrupt SF 2017, TechCrunch, September 20, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSCka8vXaJc. Under which four circumstances does the new norm of the 'Responsibility to Protect' arise? For example, if the players could flip a coin before choosing their strategies, they might agree to correlate their strategies based on the coin flip by, say, choosing ballet in the event of heads and prize fight in the event of tails. First-move advantage will be decisive in determining the winner of the race due to the expected exponential growth in capabilities of an AI system and resulting difficulty of other parties to catch up. [47] look at different policy responses to arms race de-escalation and find that the model or game that underlies an arms race can affect the success of policies or strategies to mitigate or end the race. A major terrorist attack launched from Afghanistan would represent a kind of equal opportunity disaster and should make a commitment to establishing and preserving a capable state of ultimate value to all involved. (5OP,&|#5Y9/yU'4x r+g\t97ASNgQ+Oh iCcKzCx7<=nZefYt|.OPX:'.&|=_Ml_I{]+Mr`h+9UeovX.C; =a #/ q_/=02Q0U>#|Lod. 9i In 2016, the Obama Administration developed two reports on the future of AI. which can be viewed through the lens of the stag hunt in for an example the countrys only international conference in International Relations from, Scenario Assurance game is a generic name for the game more commonly known as Stag Hunt. The French philosopher, Jean Jacques Rousseau, presented the following This is visually represented in Table 4 with each actors preference order explicitly outlined. If participation is not universal, they cannot surround the stag and it escapes, leaving everyone that hunted stag hungry. 0000016501 00000 n Let us call a stag hunt game where this condition is met a stag hunt dilemma. 0000002555 00000 n Whereas the short-term impact of AI depends on who controls it, the long-term impact depends now whether it can be controlled at all.[26]. Absolute gains looks at the total effect of the decision while relative gains only looks at the individual gains in respect to others. Solving this problem requires more understanding of its dynamics and strategic implications before hacking at it with policy solutions. (e.g., including games such as Chicken and Stag Hunt). Civilians and civilian objects are protected under the laws of armed conflict by the principle of distinction. [5] They can, for example, work together to improve good corporate governance. It involves a group of . However, a hare is seen by all hunters moving along the path. SCJ Int'l L. & Bus. If the United States beats a quick path to the exits, the incentives for Afghan power brokers to go it alone and engage in predatory, even cannibalistic behavior, may prove irresistible. Structural Conflict Prevention refers to a compromosde of long term intervention that aim to transform key socioeconomic, political and institional factors that could lead to conflict. In order to assess the likelihood of such a Coordination Regimes success, one would have to take into account the two actors expected payoffs from cooperating or defecting from the regime. On the face of it, the USSR Swerved, but I believe that both sides actually made concessions, although the US made theirs later on, to save face. This iterated structure creates an incentive to cooperate; cheating in the first round significantly reduces the likelihood that the other player will trust one enough to attempt to cooperate in the future. For example, in a scenario where the United States and Russia are competing to be the one to land on the moon first, the stag hunt would allow the two countries to work together to achieve this goal when they would have gone their separate ways and done the lunar landing on their own. Despite this, there still might be cases where the expected benefits of pursuing AI development alone outweigh (in the perception of the actor) the potential harms that might arise. 0000001656 00000 n In this book, you will make an introduction to realism, liberalism and economic structuralism as major traditions in the field, their historical evolution and some theories they have given birth . For example, international sanctions involve cooperation against target countries (Martin, 1992a; Drezner, . It is his argument: "The information that such an agreement conveys is not that the players will keep it (since it is not binding), but that each wants the other to keep it." [45] Colin S. Gray, House of Cards: Why Arms Control Must Fail, (Cornell Univ. But for the argument to be effective against a fool, he must believe that the others with whom he interacts are notAlwaysfools.Defect. [11] McKinsey Global Institute, Artificial Intelligence: The Next Digital Frontier, June 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Advanced%20Electronics/Our%20Insights/How%20artificial%20intelligence%20can%20deliver%20real%20value%20to%20companies/MGI-Artificial-Intelligence-Discussion-paper.ashx: 5 (estimating major tech companies in 2016 spent $20-30 billion on AI development and acquisitions). Beding (2008), but also in international relations (Jervis 1978) and macroeconomics (Bryant 1994). In order for human security to challenge global inequalities, there has to be cooperation between a country's foreign policy and its approach to global health. > In this section, I survey the relevant background of AI development and coordination by summarizing the literature on the expected benefits and harms from developing AI and what actors are relevant in an international safety context. Under this principle, parties to an armed conflict must always distinguish between civilians and civilian objects on the one hand, and combatants and military targets on the other. %PDF-1.7 % Several animal behaviors have been described as stag hunts. [32] Notably, discussions among U.S. policymakers to block Chinese investment in U.S. AI companies also began at this time.[33]. Another proposed principle of rationality ("maximin") suggests that I ought to consider the worst payoff I could obtain under any course of action, and choose that action that maximizes . 0000004572 00000 n For example, one prisone r may seemingly betray the other , but without losing the other's trust. While each actors greatest preference is to defect while their opponent cooperates, the prospect of both actors defecting is less desirable then both actors cooperating. [54] In a bilateral AI development scenario, the distribution variable can be described as an actors likelihood of winning * percent of benefits gained by winner (this would be reflected in the terms of the Coordination Regime). Finally, Jervis[40] also highlights the security dilemma where increases in an actors security can inherently lead to the decreased security of a rival state. 2 Examples of states include the United States, Germany, China, India, Bolivia, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam. In their paper, the authors suggest Both the game that underlies an arms race and the conditions under which it is conducted can dramatically affect the success of any strategy designed to end it[58]. Moreover, the usefulness of this model requires accurately gauging or forecasting variables that are hard to work with. Read about me, or email me. might complicate coordination efforts. [30] Greg Allen and Taniel Chan, Artificial Intelligence and National Security. Report for Harvard Kennedy School: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, July 2017, https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/AI%20NatSec%20-%20final.pdf: 71-110. We can see through studying the Stag Hunt game theory that, even though we are selfish, we still are ironically aiming to for mutual benefit, and thus we tend to follow a such a social contract. [27] An academic survey conducted showed that AI experts and researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years. The Stag Hunt The Stag Hunt is a story that became a game. [44] Thomas C. Schelling & Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control. Interestingly enough, the Stag Hunt theory can be used to describe social contracts within society, with the contract being the one to hunt the stag or achieve mutual benefit. [21] Moreover, racist algorithms[22] and lethal autonomous weapons systems[23] force us to grapple with difficult ethical questions as we apply AI to more society realms. However, in Deadlock, the prospect of both actors defecting is more desirable than both actors cooperating. Published by the Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With, Lawfare Resources for Teachers and Students, Documents Related to the Mueller Investigation, highly contentious presidential elections, Civil Liberties and Constitutional Rights. Exam 1: Game Theory in IR Class 4 Flashcards | Quizlet The payoff matrix would need adjusting if players who defect against cooperators might be punished for their defection. [11] This Article conceptualizes a stag hunt in which the participants are countries that host extractive companies on their stock exchanges, including the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, the Member States . The story is briey told by Rousseau, in A Discourse on Inequality: "If it was a matter of hunting a deer, everyone well realized that he must remain faithful to his post; but if a hare happened to pass within reach If an individual hunts a stag, he must have the cooperation of his partner in order to succeed. 0000003027 00000 n As discussed, there are both great benefits and harms to developing AI, and due to the relevance AI development has to national security, it is likely that governments will take over this development (specifically the US and China). In this paper, I develop a simple theory to explain whether two international actors are likely to cooperate or compete in developing AI and analyze what variables factor into this assessment. Type of game model and prospect of coordination. Donna Franks, an accountant for Southern Technologies Corporation, discovers that her supervisor, Elise Silverton, made several errors last year. PDF The Stag Hunt - University of California, Irvine Here, values are measured in utility. Depending on which model is present, we can get a better sense of the likelihood of cooperation or defection, which can in turn inform research and policy agendas to address this.
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